***This commentary is provided for descriptive and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies or interpreted to be investment advice. *****
Dan Zwicker makes a salient point about fundamental vs. technical analysis - by the time you get the balance sheet figured out its too late. ( https://lnkd.in/ep2-pPw ) Well this year looking both at fundamentals and technicals the best I could, I would have never expected this bounce back in corn or any of the commodities. With negative crude prices early in the pandemic, I think I overestimated the long term impact of COVID on domestic demand and overweighted domestic demand period. Crude has returned to trading pre-pandemic levels lately. Never expected stocks to use to take us all the way back to levels like 2012-14 (after the drought). China coming in with purchases was not on my radar. Now there is the buzz of a weather market with South America.
Although looking at the fundamentals - my two model projections did a decent job bracketing December corn futures....going back to Dan's point...could I figure out the balance sheet fast enough to provide trading or hedging value?
(chart produced using R Quandl & quantmod)
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