Fundamental Analysis
Tracking the last three WASDE reports I have taken a look at my previous model projections and the impact on December corn futures below. While there is definitely a gap (I'm persistently higher than the futures price in my projections) between my model projections and actual December futures prices around the report date, the directional trends are not far off. I would explain a large part of the difference by poor model fit to my simple model having omitted lots of fundamental variables and effects as well as any impact that the tariffs may be having on soybeans pulling down corn.
Technical Analysis
Technically, it is an understatement to say that the September 12 report was a bad day for corn markets. The increase in national average yield to 181.3 bushels per acre brought prices down. The RSI and the MACD reflecting the downward momentum.
***This commentary is provided for descriptive and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies or interpreted to be investment advice. *****
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