Previously my fundamental analysis and model price projection was at least tracking well with December futures, with some differences most likely due to the simple model and inability to account for uncertainty around trade policy.
(September Model Projections)
(October Model Projections-Update)
But after this last WASDE report my model is showing greater divergence. Things not accounted for in the model in the last few weeks include marginal improvements in trade talk, possibilities of expanded year round ethanol, and wet weather impacts delaying harvest. There are also a few word of mouth reports out there that some farmers aren't seeing the yields quite expected. Technically, by the close of trade on Friday there were some promising signals. Since my last update we've seen positive crossover in the MACD and continuing momentum there, as well as a closing price at the end of the week of 3.73 above the 20, 50, and 90 day moving averages. The close on the preceding day which was report day (October 11) at 3.69 was above both the 20 and 50 day moving average. We will have to see if this momentum continues through the week next week although the RSI is sitting over 60 indicating corn could be a bit overbought.
***This commentary is provided for descriptive and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies or interpreted to be investment advice. *****
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